Keep Gas Expensive.

Have you seen a gas station lately? Its like they're giving that mess away. I'm half tempted to rub some in my armpits so I can savor the savings all day long. But that would be wasteful, and maybe a little bit dangerous. So I don't.

I do use Fuelly to track my miles per gallon over time and compare with my cohorts. But sometimes getting so wrapped up in MPG confuses just how much you're getting screwed over the price of gas. Did you get accustomed to paying $3.70 and thinking you were doing pretty damn well for yourself? Yeah me too.

I'd wistfully recall the good old days when I could top off and President Jackson would have my back. But at a little over $4 a gallon I've got Grant on a search party for Lincoln to cover the cost. Not really a prospect that makes you smile, but since you're accustomed, why not leverage it?

• Tip #6: Use gas prices to become your own hedge fund | I Will Teach You To Be Rich

This article describes "fuel hedging" as airlines typically do to protect themselves from rate increases. (you may be able to do the same with your heating oil company) Hedging on your gasoline costs involves the same type of though process, although you won't be saving because of the mass scale of your purchases. Its more like a method to highlight how much you're saving, rather than let that money slip away on beer and cotton candy.

Ramit suggests tracking cost per week, but I'm using the average cost of a tank per month instead. (mostly because my expenditures aren't exactly linear; granted there are variations like the actual amount in a 'tank' but I'm willing to sacrifice for simplicity's sake) I've looked at my recent purchases and decided that I'm fairly comfortable with paying $40 for a tank of gas. Oddly enough that's well under what's been going on for the past few months.

If we take a peek at last year in comparison, a $40 hedge might seem excessive. Especially since I started the year paying about $25 a tank. (I did start buying 93 octane in April, but that's not the sole factor here)

So you can see the basic trend, when gas prices are low, I'd be pocketing the difference into a special account. And when its expensive I'd have money already set aside. Well, I haven't been running this hedge fund since 2007, but if I'd been prescient enough to realize that gas would top $4.60 here's what it would look like.

And here's this year taking into account the outstanding surplus I'd attained in 2007.

That's right, paying $40 a tank for the past two years would still come up short after the shenanigans this summer. You could make the case that I'm just tricking myself not to spend that money somewhere else, and you'd be absolutely right. But I also factor the hedge savings into my fuel budget, artificially keeping the price high. Americans set record lows for miles driven this summer, mainly because of the cost per mile. So this should motivate me to drive less and save more, but instead of handing those excesses over to the oil companies I could start saving for my next, more efficient vehicle.

Bloggers' Dozen.

Its that time again, yes, time to clean out the inbox of all the week-old noteworthy/interesting/sophomoric things that I meant to blag about but didn't find the time. And just like your local bakery, we're charging half price for these week-olds. What's half of nothing again? Lemme get my calculator out...

Jump over to the Seitch and marvel at the mobile disaster unit they've got. Its a trailer that uses solar and wind collectors to treat contaminated water, provide 16Kw of emergency electricity and 30 miles of wireless connectivity. No mention of cost as the company is still lining up investors but this looks like a pretty sweet solution for the variable anarchy disasters cause by knocking out utilities.

• The Seitch: Portable Wind and Solar Utilities

France and Spain turned off their lights at 7:55 on February 1st this year as a message to leaders about global warming. The electric system in France saw an 800 MW dip while Spain saw a 1,000 change. Wow. From residential lighting. For reference a 2005 vintage Nuclear power plant will produce 600-1200 MW. Everyone go buy CFLs.

• Clean Break:The Lights Did Go Off

I would love to look out my window and see giant wind turbines slowly fueling the electric grid dotting the horizon. All those freaking NIMBY groups need to shut the feck up. Or maybe I should start a STFUAYBY group and we can go egg whiners' houses in our spare time. Anyway, the Seitch has a look at some beautiful and large renewable resource power plants that I would love to see more of. Sweet mother of pearl, that's a big turbine.

• The Seitch: Big Beatiful Renewable Energy

Beer. Tossing. Fridge. I know I don't need to say any more, but I will anyway. This recent MIT grad decided to put some of his robotics skills to actual use and converted his mini-fridge into a remote controlled beer whipping bar caddy. This is the kinda thing Rodney Dangerfield would have in his golf bag. Watch the video for more. Yes, CNN has video of this. Although, only a six-pack in the magazine? Please, that's not gonna get any work done.

• CNN: Man Relives College

Wish you had to chew energy drinks more? Like that whole spitting culture, but don't want mouth cancer? Tired of worshiping at the alter of the office coffee maker? Well, have we got an update for you. SumSeeds are sunflower seeds coated in all the goodness you'll find in redbull or amp or juced or whatever the newest disgusting drink you dirtballs are drinking now instead of actually going to bed. Its amazing that the human race of antiquity got anything done without being fueled by guarana and taurine.

• Strange New Products: Caffeinated Sunflower Seeds

Amazon and TiVo sitting in a tree... D-O-W-N-L-O-A-D-I-N-G. Alright maybe that breaks the meter, but they're certainly hooking up. For some people. I tried to link my Amazon account and my TiVo account and got a generic error. The help support gave me the canned response of basically "Did you try what you already tried?" which they would have realized if they'd actually read my email. Super support guys, that's the way to start a new service. Not that I'm actually gonna pay to rent or buy movies on Amazon Unboxed but it would be nice to try it out.

• Zatz Not Funny: Amazon Unboxed on TiVo is Live

Well, someone has to do it and the SKers think they've got enough of a jump on the rest of us that is might as well be them. They expect to have a robot in every home by 2020 and are working to develop rules for robot human interaction. Some people expect the rules to closely model Isaac Asimov's 3 rules, while others want their robots to be able to pistol whip or kill if needed. Didn't you guys actually read any of Isaac's books? They're mostly about how the three laws are not impervious to complicated logic and will be circumvented as AI progresses. Hell, they even dipped into it in the Will Smith movie, so you really don't have an excuse.

• The Register: South Korea to Detail Robot Etiquette

Speaking of robots pistol whipping and killing (those are decision making tasks at heart, which is the only reason your PC isn't pistol whipping you right now), scientists are working on machines that will make medical decisions that closely approximate a patient's wishes. Its to be used in cases where someone hasn't created an advanced directive and is unable to make decisions themselves. Studies have resulted in surrogate decision makers only getting the call right 68% of the time, so these machines don't really have a very high bar to get over. Researchers hope to eventually hit a target of 90% accuracy. Of course there'll be quite the debate over letting machines assume this responsibility before the first machine gets to pull the plug.

• New Scientist: Can Computers make Life or Death medical Decisions?

No, not the Queen or Prince Philip, royalties. The small dividend that is paid for a commercial use of someone's copyrighted work. The Copyright Royalties Board is looking to double the amount paid per track by Internet radio stations. Now, its beyond me why there's a central committee in charge of pricing this stuff or why they're trying to jack the actual legitimate services out of business, but this seems like an odd move. Its just going to drive traffic to sites that don't pay any royalties and haven't been caught yet. We had a nice equilibrium of payment and service going but somehow consumers getting product, companies getting paid, and artists getting publicity just wasn't hacking it.

• BBC: Royalties Threaten Internet Radio

Microsoft has been going off on piracy lately with their WGA near spyware and government sponsored witch hunts in Russia. But at the end of the day, they really hope that you pirate their software and not their competitors. Its almost as if they realize that scarcity economics don't really apply to their industry. If someone isn't going to buy the software you haven't lost money. But if they get to like your product then they're more likely to get a new version which means increased sales over driving them to a freeware or open source competitor. Sound reasoning, how will you put it into action?

• TechDirt: Microsoft Exec Admits That Company Benefits From Piracy

Wow, I'd have thought Blues Traveler was a really chill guy. But checkout the plethora of assault rifles he had in his trunk "in case of a natural disaster." I don't know if I can listen to his songs anymore without wondering if he's got a machine gun guitar like el Mariachi.

• Jalopnik: Popper popped for 111mph

Renting The Power Supply.

My biggest dissuasion against running out and buying an electric car right now (aside from lack of supply, lack of funding and lack of a place to plug it in) stems from a general uncertainty of battery packs.  How long will the pack last before it needs replacing?  How much is that gonna cost?  Do I have to do anything special to it?  And so on, like with any new (and probably better) technology.  Think of your feelings the first time you saw a CD player after a lifetime of cassette decks.  There was probably a little fear and resentment of new technology deep in your chest even though it probably manifested as condescension or apathy.  There's just so much to learn and you've already kinda got a system that works.  Oh, but it could be so much better if we'd just man up and do it.  However that fear is a legitimate concern when dealing with new technologies, just ask the minidisc deck under my bed.

But what if I didn't have to worry about the battery?  TreeHugger has a very interesting link about buying the car but leasing the batteries.  Sounds like a neat idea that might make people adopt technology they're not quite sure about yet. Course you'd need to incentivize proper use and maintenance to maximize the usefulness of each pack.  So don't get excited about gorging through 48 AA batteries like you did on Christmas day when you were twelve.

• TreeHugger: Buy The Car, Lease The Battery

Eye On The Prize.

Thin-film Solar cells.  That's the place to be... in about 5 years. Right now solar power is just cool, but its going to get better.  To compete with fossil fuels it needs to get past the $1 per watt point, but right now its about 4 times that much and not very arousing to a solely fiscal analysis.  That doesn't mean that other catalysts can't drive projects, as you can see with Google's and San Diego's solar projects.

Filsom, a Swiss Firm Solar Cell Firm, projects that in 5 years solar will be marginally cheaper than fossil fuels.  And after another 5 years it'll be half as costly.  Thin-film is a new process that prints solar collectors onto a flexible backing that can be placed on many more surfaces than traditional technology.  Imagine every rooftop you see providing the power for everything underneath it.  And with thin-film, the sides and windows of the buildings can contribute too.  So alternative power doesn't have to be about endless fields of mirrors and collectors.  We can just repurpose some of the impervious surfaces that just radiate solar collection.  Win-freaking-win.

• TreeHugger: Thin-Film Solar Tech

Ocean Motion

Wave power is something that I don't really think about all that much when I consider clean alternative power sources. Normally my thoughts drift straight to solar and wind and then on to the dreamy hunk that is fusion. But that may be off base. Here's a presentation by Max Carcas of Ocean Power Delivery at a Google Tech Talk.

The presentation is about an hour long but it gives great details about the actual device as well as energy potential, market and economics of wave power. Watch the video if you have the time he's much better at explaining it than I am, but I'll put some of my notes below. Skip to about 26:00 for video of the wave tank simulation.

• Google Video: Wave Energy
• Treehugger: Max Carcas of Ocean Power Delivery
• Ocean Power Delivery Limited
  

Solar currently generates 100 watts per square meter, wind 1000 watts per square meter while wave power houses the potential for 20,000- 70,000 watts per square meter depending on teh region. Wave energy can be thought of as compressed stored wind energy.

Waves are a highly forecastable energy source, which is a major concern with wind and solar generation. Output, even without forecasting, can be held constant within a 5 and 10% threshold.

The device is called "Pelamis" (a type of sea snake) for its vertical and horizontal motion as waves pass under it. It resides in an optimal depth of 80m which is 2-10km from shore depending on the region. At this depth the waves are not compressed by the shore and retain more energy while remaining in a non-volatile state (not breaking).

A single unit is 140m long and 3.5m wide with 4 rigid sections and 3 joints that contain pneumatic actuators. The joints move up and down as well as side to side at non uniform angles to induce a kind of harmonic tuning that is used to maximize the power output depending on the type of wave. That single unit will average around 750 KW output which is enough for about 500 homes.

The device is designed to be survivable with "load shedding" as an innate feature of the design. If a large wave is encountered it will simply pass through the wave rather than rising too high on a crest and breaking apart. This is much the same as the way that wind turbines can feather in excess wind or a hydro-electric plant can discharge excess water.

The technology was designed using existing technology as a guide. Natural gas, Oil and various other marine industries have developed standards couplings and materials that are well suited to this type of environment. The device itself employs very few revolutionary, and untested, modules which makes it very reliable.

The current cost of deployment per kwh is above wind but below solar. There is a distinct trend in applications of new technologies that cost drops fairly dramatically as process is streamlined and technologies refined. Wind turbine prices have dropped 80% since the first wind turbine project; so one might make an educated guess that a similar trend will follow for wave power. Government subsidies generally provide incentive to new projects during the first few years to help with this innovation cost hurdle, as we've done for solar and wind.

I Bet Crude Oil Tastes Great!

Ethanol gets me so riled up. I mean, sure its a great way to stop using foreign oil and prop up the sagging farm industry. You know, aside from its general inefficiency, its failure to address the Neanderthalic burning-stuff-for-power lack of innovation, and the destruction of a perfectly useful commodity. People have been taking it up lately because that's a great way to impress the middle of the country. You know that same, unimproved commodity you're been growing all your life? Well turns out that it just got 7 times more expensive! Bullshit.

You want to grow power? Plant a field full of photo voltaic cells that do a much better job of harnessing sunlight and turning it into usable fuel. And I won't need to subsidize you cause it won't be ridiculously expensive to turn a mild profit.

Sorry I finally got around to watching "Who Killed the Electric Car" so I'm very angry about inferior alternatives being pushed out because they may benefit a small subset of people for a short time. These hydrogen and ethanol technologies that are the "salvation of the energy dependence" completely fail to address the issue of environmental efficacy. Electric cars have been around since the beginning of cars, but we've been distracted all this time by a better advertised, but less effective, alternative. Don't get suckered in again. Don't buy an "efficient" 42mpg hybrid, don't wait around 5 years for a "where the hell will the fuel come from, oh its expensive and inefficient to create" hydrogen drive vehicle. There are gigawatts of electricity out there in wind, sunlight, and waves just waiting to be harvested. And electric cars the possess durability and performance to make use of that free power NOW, without the need to throw billions into "future research".

So next time you feel pressured to use one of these "new innovations" in fuel, reply that you're more temped to crack open a can of 10W-30 instead of Gatorade at the gym.

• Ethanol in America: "Our Crop. Our Fuel. Our Country." (TreeHugger)
• Checkbiotech.org: Ethanol's corn-fed boom holds hidden costs: higher food prices

Bike What?

I thought the reason all these bike persons we better than me was cause they don't need any of my technology to help them out. Bikes are the same as they've been for the last 50 years, and they don't need any help or imagination. The folks in Norway disagree, cause they've got some steep as shit hills there. So the "bike Trampe" is well received, and authorities say that an uphill escalator for bikes has increased bike usage in the last year.

• Tree Hugger: Bike Trampe Stimulates Cycling

State Of The Cons-umion.

No I didn't watch the State of the Union.  I've been doing my best to keep my head down and pretend that Bush doesn't exist until the situation resolves itself.  Which is, ironically, very much like Bush's foreign policy.  Not having watched, I don't really have any opinions to put forward (ethanol and coal?  You dirty son-of-a-...) about what was said or not said.  I will, however, refer you to Martin Eberhard of Tesla Motors.

• The Tesla blog: Vintage Oil and Other Hare-Brained Ideas

"One of the foremost principles that led me to found Tesla Motors was that, electric cars move our choice of energy source upstream from the vehicle, making them the ultimate multi-fuel vehicles: You can power them with clean (or dirty) coal; wind or solar power; clean, safe (or otherwise) nuclear energy; or even good ol' oil."

Upstream, this is the concept I've been talking about for as long as I knew you could run a car off electricity.  Now I've got a nice word for it.

"Imagine if you got a $25,000 tax credit for buying an EV for your "business," like you can for a Hummer "

Yeah, imagine politicians did more than pay public lip service to the environment before turning around and selling other peoples' souls to the auto and oil industries.

"I am not so enthusiastic about stepping up domestic oil production. I actually like our wildernesses, and I don't think we need to fill our few remaining unspoiled places with oil extraction industry. Lots of other people have written on this subject; let me just agree with them."

Damn right, Martin.  Well said.  I need to figure out how to get more into this company, short of stealing $100,000 for a roadster or for a 50,000 Whitestar.

Energy Stability With Battery Packs.

Whoa, this is an interesting concept. People are down on some kinds of alternative energy because they can be inconsistent and are not on-demand sources. If you have a cloudy day you'll generate less solar power. Or if there's no wind, you'll get less wind power. And the flip side is that you may end up generating more power than you need, but don't have any way to store it.

This article on plug-in hybrids pitches solutions all over the place. If plug-in hybrids were mainstream enough in the US, electric companies could benefit from stability and use a wider variety of sources. First, the electric providers should be pushing for plug-in hybrids because they will sell more electricity, which means more profit. (out of the oil companies pockets) They've over built production facilities to deal with usage spikes, so most of the time these factories are wasting overhead. By incentivising off-peak charging they could make full use of the capital expenditure they've made.

With higher profits, they could justify cleaner electricity improvements like coal plant upgrades or even starting alternative energy production. The plug-ins will help them again there. They can act as an energy buffer, using surplus energy at low demand hours and even offering it back to the grid when demand spikes or if an alternative source has a sub-par day. Think about it, millions of high quality storage batteries keeping our energy supply and consumption in collusion.

Some of the proposals integrate a "car IP" so that when you plug into the grid your account is credited or debited no matter where you are. So wherever your car is parked it is contributing to the communal power supply. If there is a natural disaster or emergency that cut power to regions, the cars could be used to keep essential systems running. And even if you sold all your electricity back to the community, you could still drive when you came back to your car using the gasoline supplement.

This may seem like quite the ambitious endeavor but its the best argument for a hybrid I've ever heard.

• Technology Review: How Plug-In Hybrids Will Save the Grid

Too. Many. Carticles...

Ok, I'm not sure how to go about this so I'll just start with the stupidest one and work up from there.

The HHR was a terrible idea to begin with. Its just ugly. So now the news that you can pay $200 MORE for one without three seats five windows and one door makes me wonder what the hell is going on. Are people buying these? Is this the new child-snatcher mobile? Watch out plain white van, the HHR is coming after your target consumer.

• Like A Rock? Chevy HHR Panel Van Gets A Starting Price Of $16,750 - Jalopnik

You know those stickers on new cars "estimating" the milage? You know how they're wrong? Well apparently the EPA is taking this matter by the horns and is revising the testing system for the first time since 1985. The result? Most estimates will drop by around 12%. Now I'm not sure what these tests consist of or how they were revised, but it sounds to me like car companies got pretty good at jumping through the hoops over the last 21 years. Making cars appear more efficient than they are. Class action lawsuit?

• Mileage Will Vary: EPA Changes Rules On Fuel Economy To Reflect Reality - Jalopnik

Doing your part for the environment by driving a Prius? As with most be cool-and-make-a-statement products marketed to US consumers it may not meet up with expectations. People have been worried about the dust to dust cost of the battery component for a while; disposing of the materials is as detrimental that burning gas for the life of the car. Well look at this article about the Toyota supplier that provides nickel for the batteries. The area in Canada around the factory has become so desolate from sulfur-dioxide emissions that astronauts went there to practice driving their moon buggies.
But the nickel's voyage only begins there. Its shipped 10,000 miles around the world before reaching the battery incarnation in Japan. And then they ship the completed cars back around the world to wherever they're selling them. Is all this worth 40, maybe 45 mpg? (with the updated EPA estimates) My 11 year old Honda gets 35 and didn't require exotic materials.

• Toyota factory turns landscape to arid wilderness | the Mail on Sunday

Sure they do oil in Texas, but they also do bio-diesel. Well, they used to do bio-diesel. The use of these fuels produces nitrogen oxide emissions, which the state found unacceptable as they passed legislation against it last year. The industry has had one year to lower the emission levels, but that's almost up. I'm all for reducing pollution, but I'm not sure this is the way to encourage growth in a small market. You need to offer incentives, not just penalties. Right now what reason is there to try and develop this technology besides the goodness of your convictions?

• Biodiesel banned in Texas

Thanks Nissan, you're doing a great jeorb. The new hybrid Altima will be available in 8 states to meet their stringent clean air laws. But here's the kicker: they don't think they can make money on it. Yeah just another reason I'm not impressed by hybrids. People don't want to pay for them, companies can't make a profit from them, the environmental costs of producing and disposing of them, they still run on gas, and they misrepresent themselves as being a kind of environmental salvation.

• Nissan says hybrid will lose money - 12/08/06 - The Detroit News Online

Does diesel hybrid make sense? I'm the first to admit that I'm not an engineer, and don't know all that much about designing cars. But aren't diesel engines least efficient when they first turn on? When they're cold and not completely burning the fuel? So how does that translate to a system where the engine kicks on for a little while to top off the batteries and then switch off? Seems like we should have one big diesel that's always running, and you just hook your car up to it when you need some juice.

• A Diesel Prius? Toyota Could Use Isuzu's Greatest Asset in Hybrid Drive - Jalopnik

Fusion power. That's where its at. But until we get that ITER online, we'll just have to use the old-fashioned kind. That solar power folks, and its getting better. So I like to see people finding applications, cause demand drives research. So peep these guys giving their lackluster hybrids a tweak by fitting solar roofs on them. They're getting 20 miles a day already even without the ninja photo-voltaic cells that are coming. 20 miles a day could put some people in the range of using zero fuel on a daily basis, and still having the option to drive 50 miles on a weekend getaway if they'd like.

• Solar Electrical Vehicles

You know I like the Tesla roadster. I know it probably has its own environmental issues but I don't like the Tesla for its fuel efficiency. I like the concept, a small company building a redonkulous performance car by developing new technology while reusing body designs with plans to downscale it into a reasonable production technology. And its a sweet car. You don't even realize how fast you're going. Just ask this guy who got the first ticket while driving a Tesla. Shit, if I had one I wouldn't care.

• Treehugger: Tesla Ticketed

Water Power Update.

I can't believe how many ideas there are for getting electricity from water movement. Wait; yes I can. I can't believe how few of them we use. Tide, current, wave, and different mechanical implementations for each. Add these to the list:

• Treehugger: New Innovations In Tidal Energy
• Hugg / S.D.E. Wave Power for $0.02 per kWh
• Hugg / brandl generator
• Hugg / wave plane
• Hugg / The Kobold turbine within the archimedes bridge
• Hugg / exploiting flows within water treatment works

New Diesel: Better Than New Coke. It Has To Be.

(Update: Ultra) low sulfur diesel sounds pretty badass. Its sposed to be 97% cleaner than diesel 'classic'. Which is so high it makes me skeptical. There are 8,000,000 trucks, buses and cars in the US that will benefit from the formula. Its pretty much like when they rolled out unleaded gas in the 70's.

The initiative started under the Clinton administration and wasn't fucked up by the Bush administration. Ten years in the making and we finally have new diesel that cut emissions in any diesel vehicle by 10%. Combining this fuel with new diesel technology produces an astonishing 95% reduced emissions. Combine these reductions with the fact that diesel engines have always been 20-40% more efficient than gas engines and you should start seeing why this is so great. Get excited even if you'd never buy a diesel car, because everything you consume is transported by diesel engines. Cutting emissions at any level is great news for everyone.

• .: New Diesel Fuel Hitting Pumps Nationwide on October 15 Cuts Pollution, Enables New Low-Emission Engine Technology - Fuel and Economy :. Auto Spectator

Watch Me Burn Your Dinner.

I've never really been so hot on ethanol as an alternative fuel. Sure, its technically renewable, but I'd rather see these fuels come from untapped resources, not re-purposed necessities.

I know its hard to get solid facts, since sources vary so widely on the subject. Mostly you hear about how wonderful ethanol is as a renewable fuel that releases zero carbon emissions and works in current engines. I don't want to discount those positives, but I think the glossed over downsides are worth contemplating. Environmentalist Lester Brown is a major proponent of using food for food. He points out that rising gas prices are making corn more profitable as fuel than as food. Ethanol plants are being installed all over the world, Brazil leading in production. Last year the US ethanol industry consumed more corn than the entire Canadian harvest.

"There is no international body to mediate the competition between 800 million people with cars and two billion of the poorest people who spend more than half their income on food.'

How is someone supposed to be able to compete with an industry that is willing to pay double an item's worth just to burn it? Couple the ethical dilemma of burning dinners with the fact that ethanol just shifts pollution. Sure, zero emissions when it is burned; but ethanol is produced using fossil fuels that release just as much carbon. Then think about the production and transport of crops using fossil fuels, and you'll realize that such a complicated process requires many layers of infrastructure that will all need to be modified as we try to shed fossil fuels.

Ethanol is a stopgap. Its meant to appease people without having to lay out for a new car that uses a fundamentally different technology. I'm not saying it isn't a small improvement over the past 50 years of consumption, but I find it hard to believe its superior to other methods of energy collection.

• globeandmail.com: New fuels depleting food supply, critic says